{"id":384,"date":"2026-10-26T22:07:40","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T02:07:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tedtroxell.com\/?p=384"},"modified":"2026-10-26T22:07:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T02:07:57","slug":"what-gives-a-data-center-away","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tedtroxell.com\/?p=384","title":{"rendered":"What gives a data center away."},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n
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01 \/ THE SIGNALS<\/div>\n

A code name tells you almost nothing. The name on the deed tells you a lot.<\/h2>\n

A code name, an NDA and a 30-year abatement look like the fingerprints of a data center. In practice they are the fingerprints of any large incentive deal. Intel ran a code name in Licking County, and so did Panasonic in Kansas, Samsung in Texas, Scout in South Carolina and Foxconn in Wisconsin. What a factory can’t imitate is the kind of company standing behind the shell LLC, and the number of permanent jobs it promises for every hundred million dollars it spends. Those two measures separated the data centers from the factories in our panel better than everything else combined.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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How well each signal separates data centers from everything else<\/div>\n
Area under the curve across 38 projects. 1.0 is perfect; 0.5 is a coin flip; below 0.5 the signal points the wrong way.<\/div>\n

The interactive chart needs JavaScript. The data table follows.<\/p><\/div>\n

Each signal scored 0\u20132 on evidence public before the end use was disclosed. Pooled panel: 22 data centers, 16 large non-data-center projects. AUC = probability a random data center outscores a random control.<\/div>\n
Show signal data as a table<\/summary>
Signal<\/th>AUC<\/th>What it measures<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Who's in the room (S6)<\/td>0.955<\/td>A known data-center developer, engineer or counsel behind the LLC<\/td><\/tr>
Jobs per dollar (S8)<\/td>0.938<\/td>Under 5 permanent jobs per $100M of capex<\/td><\/tr>
Power filings (S1)<\/td>0.679<\/td>Load-side utility, RTO or generator air-permit filings<\/td><\/tr>
Land assembly (S2)<\/td>0.624<\/td>100+ contiguous acres by a new LLC<\/td><\/tr>
Timing (S7)<\/td>0.592<\/td>Grading before disclosure; expedited review<\/td><\/tr>
Site specs (S4)<\/td>0.554<\/td>Water, parking, docks, fiber<\/td><\/tr>
Code name (S3)<\/td>0.445<\/td>Project X, NDAs in minutes<\/td><\/tr>
Capex-sized incentives (S5)<\/td>0.409<\/td>Equipment exemptions, 30-year abatements, IRBs<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/details>\n<\/figure>\n<\/section>\n\n
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02 \/ THE TEST<\/div>\n

Our first scoring rule failed. The fix worked well enough to make us suspicious.<\/h2>\n

The first version added up seven “secrecy” signals. When we froze that rule and tested it on 15 new cases, it caught one data center out of nine. Adding the jobs-per-dollar test and giving extra weight to the party behind the land repaired it, and then a much simpler rule (100 or more acres assembled, plus a recognizable data-center firm somewhere in the paperwork) did better than either.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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Same 38 projects, two scoring rules<\/div>\n
Each dot is a project. Above the dashed line, the rule calls it a data center. Hollow dark rings mark the mistakes.<\/div>\n

The interactive chart needs JavaScript. The data table follows.<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/i>Data center<\/span><\/i>Not a data center<\/span><\/i>Wrong call<\/span><\/div>\n
Pre-specified rule: S1\u2013S7 summed, flag at \u226510. Discriminated rule: adds 2\u00d7jobs-ratio + party, \u22123 if job-heavy, flag at \u226512. Hover or focus any dot for the project. Open the table for all cases.<\/div>\n
Show all 38 projects as a table<\/summary>
Project<\/th>Place<\/th>Actual<\/th>First rule<\/th>Revised rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Project Jupiter (Oracle\/STACK)<\/td>Santa Teresa, NM<\/td>Data center<\/td>13<\/td>19<\/td><\/tr>
Meta Hyperion (Project Sucre)<\/td>Richland Parish, LA<\/td>Data center<\/td>12<\/td>17<\/td><\/tr>
Vantage Port Washington<\/td>Port Washington, WI<\/td>Data center<\/td>13<\/td>19<\/td><\/tr>
Amazon New Carlisle<\/td>St. Joseph County, IN<\/td>Data center<\/td>11<\/td>16<\/td><\/tr>
Google New Albany (Montauk Innovations LLC)<\/td>New Albany, OH<\/td>Data center<\/td>10<\/td>15<\/td><\/tr>
Meta New Albany<\/td>New Albany, OH<\/td>Data center<\/td>11<\/td>16<\/td><\/tr>
Google Fort Wayne<\/td>Allen County, IN<\/td>Data center<\/td>8<\/td>12<\/td><\/tr>
Oracle\/Crusoe Stargate Abilene<\/td>Abilene, TX<\/td>Data center<\/td>11<\/td>17<\/td><\/tr>
Homer City Energy Campus<\/td>Homer City, PA<\/td>Data center<\/td>9<\/td>14<\/td><\/tr>
Microsoft Mount Pleasant<\/td>Mount Pleasant, WI<\/td>Data center<\/td>6<\/td>12<\/td><\/tr>
Slavic Village hyperscale<\/td>Cleveland, OH<\/td>Data center<\/td>5<\/td>10<\/td><\/tr>
Amherst Nordson campus<\/td>Amherst, OH<\/td>Data center<\/td>1<\/td>5<\/td><\/tr>
Microsoft Licking County<\/td>Heath\/Hebron, OH<\/td>Data center<\/td>9<\/td>15<\/td><\/tr>
Intel Ohio One<\/td>New Albany, OH<\/td>Other<\/td>8<\/td>5<\/td><\/tr>
Anduril Arsenal-1<\/td>Pickaway County, OH<\/td>Other<\/td>6<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Hadrian Mesa factory<\/td>Mesa, AZ<\/td>Other<\/td>2<\/td>-1<\/td><\/tr>
Honda-LG battery plant<\/td>Fayette County, OH<\/td>Other<\/td>8<\/td>5<\/td><\/tr>
Micron Clay megafab<\/td>Clay, NY<\/td>Other<\/td>10<\/td>7<\/td><\/tr>
Ford BlueOval City<\/td>Stanton, TN<\/td>Other<\/td>5<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
Scout Motors (Project Connect)<\/td>Blythewood, SC<\/td>Other<\/td>8<\/td>5<\/td><\/tr>
Foxconn Wisconn Valley (2017)<\/td>Mount Pleasant, WI<\/td>Other<\/td>11<\/td>8<\/td><\/tr>
Code-named fulfillment center (generic)<\/td>Ohio<\/td>Other<\/td>5<\/td>7<\/td><\/tr>
Supplier plant (generic)<\/td>Midwest<\/td>Other<\/td>3<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
Saline Twp (Related \/ Oracle-OpenAI)<\/td>Saline Twp, MI<\/td>Data center<\/td>7<\/td>13<\/td><\/tr>
Microsoft Project Nova<\/td>Caledonia, WI<\/td>Data center<\/td>9<\/td>14<\/td><\/tr>
PRSM Preble County<\/td>Preble County, OH<\/td>Data center<\/td>5<\/td>11<\/td><\/tr>
CRG Project Cumulus<\/td>St. Charles, MO<\/td>Data center<\/td>10<\/td>16<\/td><\/tr>
Hancock County MegaSite<\/td>Buck Creek Twp, IN<\/td>Data center<\/td>8<\/td>13<\/td><\/tr>
Bristol Innovation Park<\/td>Bristol, IN<\/td>Data center<\/td>7<\/td>12<\/td><\/tr>
Howell Twp (Randee LLC)<\/td>Howell Twp, MI<\/td>Data center<\/td>6<\/td>11<\/td><\/tr>
QTS Dane County<\/td>DeForest, WI<\/td>Data center<\/td>9<\/td>15<\/td><\/tr>
Google Franklin Township<\/td>Indianapolis, IN<\/td>Data center<\/td>6<\/td>12<\/td><\/tr>
Panasonic De Soto (Project Ocean)<\/td>De Soto, KS<\/td>Other<\/td>9<\/td>6<\/td><\/tr>
Samsung Taylor (Project Silicon Silver)<\/td>Taylor, TX<\/td>Other<\/td>9<\/td>11<\/td><\/tr>
Hyundai Metaplant<\/td>Bryan County, GA<\/td>Other<\/td>7<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr>
Oak Run Solar<\/td>Madison County, OH<\/td>Other<\/td>4<\/td>8<\/td><\/tr>
Nucor Mason County<\/td>Point Pleasant, WV<\/td>Other<\/td>6<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
300 MW battery storage (generic)<\/td>Midwest<\/td>Other<\/td>2<\/td>6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/details>\n<\/figure>\n
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1 of 9<\/div>
new data centers caught by the first rule (recall 0.11)<\/div><\/div>\n
9 of 9<\/div>
caught by “100+ acres + a known data-center party”<\/div><\/div>\n
0<\/div>
false alarms in 38 under that rule<\/div><\/div>\n
2<\/div>
misses that survive every rule: both announced themselves on day one<\/div><\/div>\n <\/div>\n

The two projects no version of the rule catches are Cleveland’s Slavic Village campus, which was filed as a data center the day after council introduced a moratorium, and the Nordson campus conversion in Amherst, which the developer described plainly at its first hearing. Neither one hid, so there was nothing to detect. The method is built for the ones that do.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n

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03 \/ THE CLOCK<\/div>\n

Catch the deed and you have about a year. Wait for the hearing and you have a few weeks.<\/h2>\n

When the first anyone hears of a project is the rezoning hearing, the public typically has one to four months before the decision. When the first trace is a land record, an LLC filing or a signed NDA, the median warning in our panel was 14 months. Toledo’s Meta site is the extreme case: a shell company’s rezoning in late 2022, the words “data storage” in a zoning text amendment nine months later, and the tenant’s name a full 28 months after the first filing.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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Months from first public record to disclosure of the end use<\/div>\n
Thirteen Midwest projects where both dates are on the record.<\/div>\n

The interactive chart needs JavaScript. The data table follows.<\/p><\/div>\n

Toledo’s Meta site: 9 months to “data storage” use, 28 to the tenant’s name. Sources: Toledo Blade, DCD, Business Journal Daily, Journal-News, Wisconsin Watch, Crain’s Grand Rapids, IBJ, STLPR, Pittsburgh Business Times.<\/div>\n
Show lead times as a table<\/summary>
Project<\/th>Months<\/th>First record to disclosure<\/th>Dates<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Meta, Middleton Twp (Toledo)<\/td>28<\/td>Shell LLC rezoning \u2192 tenant named<\/td>Liames LLC, late 2022 \u2192 Apr 2025<\/td><\/tr>
Aligned, Pataskala (Columbus)<\/td>24<\/td>Deed \u2192 application<\/td>Nov 2023 \u2192 Nov 2025<\/td><\/tr>
Meta, Lebanon (Indianapolis)<\/td>24<\/td>Mayor's pursuit \u2192 disclosure<\/td>~2022 \u2192 Nov 2024<\/td><\/tr>
Prologis, Trenton (Cincinnati)<\/td>18<\/td>Purchase agreement \u2192 plans<\/td>Apr 2024 \u2192 Jan 2026<\/td><\/tr>
Bristolville 25, Lordstown (Youngstown)<\/td>17<\/td>Rezoning \u2192 site plan<\/td>May 2024 \u2192 Oct 2025<\/td><\/tr>
Meta, Beaver Dam (Madison)<\/td>14<\/td>Shell LLC NDA \u2192 announcement<\/td>Balloonist LLC, Dec 2023 \u2192 Feb 2025<\/td><\/tr>
Microsoft, Gaines Twp (Grand Rapids)<\/td>14<\/td>Deed \u2192 rezoning<\/td>Aug 2024 \u2192 Dec 2025<\/td><\/tr>
Bitdeer, Weathersfield (Youngstown)<\/td>9<\/td>Deed \u2192 investor update<\/td>May 2025 \u2192 Feb 2026<\/td><\/tr>
Google, Monrovia (Indianapolis)<\/td>9<\/td>PUD filing \u2192 tenant named<\/td>Jan 2025 \u2192 Oct 2025<\/td><\/tr>
Cloverleaf, Edwardsville (St. Louis)<\/td>9<\/td>City emails \u2192 disclosure<\/td>May 2025 \u2192 Feb 2026<\/td><\/tr>
QTS, DeForest (Madison)<\/td>8<\/td>State NDA \u2192 announcement<\/td>Feb 2025 \u2192 Oct 2025<\/td><\/tr>
Microsoft, Mount Pleasant (Milwaukee)<\/td>2<\/td>Village NDA \u2192 announcement (voluntary)<\/td>Jan 2023 \u2192 Mar 2023<\/td><\/tr>
Springdale (Pittsburgh)<\/td>1<\/td>Deed \u2192 council vote (voluntary)<\/td>Nov 2025 \u2192 Dec 2025<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/details>\n<\/figure>\n<\/section>\n\n
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04 \/ THE NETWORK<\/div>\n

A few familiar names, across four states<\/h2>\n

The shell companies repeat. Filings in Indiana and Missouri tie the same two managers to a group of Google-affiliated LLCs, and the same Indianapolis lawyer appears on both of Google’s Indiana filings. Meta and Oracle have their own recurring names. If you only have time for one search a month, make it the new LLC filings at the Secretary of State, checked against this list.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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The Google shell network, as documented in public filings<\/div>\n
Managers and counsel in the center; the LLCs they appear on; where each LLC surfaced.<\/div>\n

The interactive chart needs JavaScript. The data table follows.<\/p><\/div>\n

Deep Meadow Ventures: counsel stated on the record it “was created by Google” (MDC hearing, Aug 20, 2025). Spark Innovations and Groot linked by STLPR, Sept 8, 2025. Meta’s shells (Liames, Balloonist, Degas, Sidecat) and Oracle’s Green Chile Ventures follow the same pattern.<\/div>\n
Show network names as a table<\/summary>
Name<\/th>Type<\/th>Where it appears<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Michael Montfort<\/td>Manager<\/td>Indiana and Missouri public filings<\/td><\/tr>
David Thomas<\/td>Manager<\/td>Indiana and Missouri public filings<\/td><\/tr>
Joseph Calderon<\/td>Counsel<\/td>Indiana Google filings<\/td><\/tr>
Deep Meadow Ventures<\/td>LLC<\/td>Franklin Township, Indiana<\/td><\/tr>
Morgan County Data Center I PUD<\/td>Filing<\/td>Monrovia, Indiana<\/td><\/tr>
Spark Innovations LLC<\/td>LLC<\/td>St. Charles, Missouri<\/td><\/tr>
Groot<\/td>LLC<\/td>St. Charles, Missouri<\/td><\/tr>
AG Rose Solutions<\/td>LLC<\/td>Kansas City<\/td><\/tr>
Peanut LLC<\/td>LLC<\/td>Virginia<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/details>\n<\/figure>\n<\/section>\n\n
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05 \/ THE MAP<\/div>\n

Northeast Ohio keeps saying no. Pittsburgh follows a different path.<\/h2>\n

Run across fourteen metros, the same records also map where the resistance is. The four Northeast Ohio metros have seen 15 proposals since 2022; seven are dead or stalled, and the metro counties have recorded 30 local moratoriums in this sweep. Two hours east, three campuses measured in gigawatts are under construction on an old coal plant, a shuttered coal plant and a former Alcoa research site, and Allegheny County’s neighbors have passed one moratorium.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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Pipeline and pushback, fourteen Midwest metros<\/div>\n
Projects proposed since 2022 (bar), of which withdrawn, rejected or stalled (dark segment), and local moratoriums in force (number).<\/div>\n

The interactive chart needs JavaScript. The data table follows.<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/i>Live or built<\/span><\/i>Withdrawn, rejected or stalled<\/span><\/div>\n
Counts from the Oct 21, 2026 metro sweep; litigated-but-proceeding projects are counted as live. Moratoriums are municipal and county pauses in the metro’s counties, not statewide totals (Ohio \u2265138; Michigan \u226552; Indiana ~17 counties).<\/div>\n
Show metro data as a table<\/summary>
Metro<\/th>Proposed<\/th>Dead or stalled<\/th>Moratoriums<\/th>Largest live proposal<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Chicago<\/td>14<\/td>7<\/td>2<\/td>Joliet 1.8 GW; Project Cardinal 1.8 GW<\/td><\/tr>
Detroit\u2013Ann Arbor<\/td>9<\/td>7<\/td>2<\/td>Saline 1,383 MW<\/td><\/tr>
Indianapolis<\/td>8<\/td>2<\/td>3<\/td>Meta Lebanon $10B<\/td><\/tr>
Pittsburgh<\/td>7<\/td>1<\/td>1<\/td>Homer City 4.5 GW; Shippingport 2 GW; Upper Burrell 3 GW<\/td><\/tr>
Columbus<\/td>7<\/td>2<\/td>6<\/td>Meta Prometheus ~1 GW<\/td><\/tr>
St. Louis<\/td>7<\/td>1<\/td>3<\/td>CRG Festus $6B<\/td><\/tr>
Minneapolis\u2013St. Paul<\/td>7<\/td>3<\/td>13<\/td>Tract Farmington ~$5B<\/td><\/tr>
Milwaukee\u2013Madison<\/td>7<\/td>3<\/td>2<\/td>Vantage Port Washington $15B<\/td><\/tr>
Akron\u2013Canton<\/td>5<\/td>2<\/td>11<\/td>Bitdeer\/Geis Shalersville to 750 MW<\/td><\/tr>
Youngstown<\/td>5<\/td>3<\/td>7<\/td>McDonald Works to 900 MW (paper)<\/td><\/tr>
Cincinnati\u2013Dayton<\/td>4<\/td>2<\/td>10<\/td>Trenton 250 MW<\/td><\/tr>
Grand Rapids<\/td>4<\/td>1<\/td>4<\/td>Microsoft Gaines 414 ac<\/td><\/tr>
Cleveland<\/td>3<\/td>2<\/td>7<\/td>H5 downtown expansion<\/td><\/tr>
Toledo<\/td>2<\/td>0<\/td>5<\/td>Meta Middleton $800M<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/details>\n<\/figure>\n
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Pittsburgh’s edge has little to do with being friendlier to the industry. The land was already zoned for a power plant.Homer City (4.5 GW), Shippingport (2 GW) and Upper Burrell (3 GW) needed no rezoning and faced no referendum.<\/small><\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n
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06 \/ THE ROUTINE<\/div>\n

Six steps, in the order that worked<\/h2>\n
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1<\/div>

Unmask the LLCs<\/h3>

Every deed, option or easement over 50 acres in the last 90 days: pull the grantee from the Secretary of State, note the organizer, agent and formation date, and match against the watchlist. A match is enough to open a case file by itself.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n

2<\/div>

Map the land<\/h3>

Group recordings by grantee, map contiguity, check annexation petitions. In Wisconsin, the DOR transfer return is free where the recorder charges by the search.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n

3<\/div>

Pull load-side filings only<\/h3>

Large-load and special-contract dockets, the RTO load queue, air permits for generators and fuel cells. Skip generation-only filings with an offtake deal: under the first rule, an 800 MW solar farm scored as a data center.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n

4<\/div>

Get the jobs number<\/h3>

From any incentive application or release. Under 5 permanent jobs per $100M of capex is a data center until shown otherwise; over 20 is a factory.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n

5<\/div>

Then read the agendas<\/h3>

Code names, NDAs, executive sessions. Agendas will tell you something large is in the works, but rarely what it is, which is why they come last rather than first.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n

6<\/div>

Score, log, diff monthly<\/h3>

Expect two to five hits per metro per year. Enter each on the ledger at “detected,” not “announced,” so the announced-versus-built gap counts the ones that never got a press release.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n <\/div>\n

Nine more records worth checking<\/h3>\n
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Utility land sales<\/h3>

Xcel sold 348 acres at Becker to a Black & Veatch subsidiary for $7.7M in a regulatory filing. It flipped to Amazon for $73.5M.<\/p>MN PUC, Sept 2022 \u2192 2024<\/span><\/div>\n

Load forecasts filed with the grid<\/h3>

AES Ohio told PJM of nine hyperscale sites totaling 6,485 MW by 2033, none named.<\/p>PJM LAS, Sept 2026<\/span><\/div>\n

NDA logs<\/h3>

Four Wisconsin villages and the state signed NDAs with Balloonist, Degas, Vantage and Microsoft. The agreement itself is a public record, even when what it covers is not.<\/p>Wisconsin Watch, Jan 2026<\/span><\/div>\n

Generator air permits<\/h3>

One Elk Grove Village site was noticed for 112 three-megawatt backup generators. There is no other kind of building that needs that many.<\/p>IEPA, Aug 2025<\/span><\/div>\n

Federal water permits<\/h3>

Groot, a Google-linked LLC, applied to the Army Corps for the St. Charles site while the city’s staff were under NDA.<\/p>USACE \/ STLPR, 2025<\/span><\/div>\n

Gas-supply contracts<\/h3>

EQT signed with Homer City and Shippingport before site plans existed.<\/p>BusinessWire, Jul 2025<\/span><\/div>\n

EDC email<\/h3>

“Project Peninsula,” 800 acres in Solon Township, surfaced only through a county records request.<\/p>DCD, Jun 2026<\/span><\/div>\n

Flips and renames<\/h3>

Magellan Scientific held a Niles plant for five weeks before selling to Bitdeer’s White Tail Creek LLC. Acoma became Yucca Growth. Western Hospitality became Bristolville 25.<\/p>Business Journal Daily, 2025\u201326<\/span><\/div>\n

Transfer returns<\/h3>

Wisconsin DOR data showed Vantage still buying in Port Washington, parcel by parcel, in Sept 2026.<\/p>Ozaukee Press, Oct 2026<\/span><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n

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